#Midterm house results series#

Trump’s divisive tactics on immigration backfired That’s only good for bad actors with their own reasons for weakening those links. With the Trump administration determined to apply the sanctions extraterritorially to the partners and allies who were co-signatories three years ago of the nuclear deal Trump rejected, there will be fresh impetus behind attempts to create an alternative international payments system that isn’t dependent on the dollar – and US unilateralism. Iran, the object of new US sanctions this week, is a particular bone of contention. The change of majority in the House will do little to alter US policy on issues where America’s allies have differed with Trump, like climate change, Middle East peace, trade policy, Iran, Russia and the importance of international institutions. The rest of the world will still have to deal with ‘America First’. The new committee chairs are already raring to go – and looking forward to seeing the president’s tax returns.ĭemocrats have the option too of beginning impeachment proceedings, as Republicans did to President Clinton two decades ago, but that is not currently their top priority.Īs Trump’s focus shifts towards winning a second term in 2020 – a genuine possibility, absent seriously damaging revelations from Mueller – we can look forward to the president-candidate simultaneously taking credit for all that is going well and blaming the Democrat-controlled House when they don’t. Trump will be more concerned at the prospect of the Democrats holding hearings, with ‘caravans’ of subpoenas, into all aspects of administration policy and behaviour, with the benefit of the conclusions of the Mueller-led FBI enquiry into Russian meddling in the 2016 elections. Where he can, the president will use executive orders to advance his agenda, as President Obama did before him. With Democrats now in charge of the House, there is every prospect of gridlock on the legislative front, including the budget. There was no ‘blue wave’ in yesterday’s midterms but nor was it the ‘tremendous success’ which President Trump claimed for himself and the Republicans. Elections will do little to alter policy on contentious international issuesįor once the polls were right. There are signs that things may change in 2020. So the dominant strategy for Europe may be to kick the can down the road, and wait this president out. These elections did not settle this debate, but they did show that Americans are no longer complacent – voter turnout was at record levels for midterm elections and many key issues that mobilized Americans like immigration and the economy have global implications.

#Midterm house results series#

Those more sanguine have assumed that a series of idiosyncratic factors landed Trump in the White House, and that America’s attacks on internationalism would pass. Today, America remains the most unequal country in the world.įor two years, Europeans have debated America’s new role as an international disruptor. That Trump’s campaign strategy played on a fear of immigration, not economic success, is partly driven by the reality that many ordinary Americans see tax cuts as primarily benefiting wealthy Americans. Moderate and progressive Democrats will continue to battle over the party’s agenda.įor the Republican Party, there could be a moment to consider whether their very close attachment to Trump’s agenda and his unconventional style may have muted gains which could have been stronger given robust economic growth, job creation and rising hourly wages. A record number of over 100 women have been elected to the House of Representatives, including the first openly gay Native American woman. Here, division runs deeper than even the number of Republicans and Democrats in the House or Senate suggest. If this happens, trade will become an important issue in the 2020 presidential elections.īut the second and more pervasive area to watch will continue to be America’s culture wars. Americans may well experience a deepening trade war and suffer its costs very differently. But it will also be played out across America. Some of this division will now be given actual political expression in Congress. This division is likely to infect US politics for the next two years. Americans have voted against Trump, and Americans have voted for Trump.

The 2018 US midterm elections were a referendum on President Trump and in the aftermath, only one truth is crystal clear. Americans are divided – but no longer complacent